The Pub

I'm Not "Back"

2009-11-16T09:07:00.005-07:00

Hello my faithful followers. I'm back, but not "back". This post is not a commitment to regular updates. I would not even know where to begin if I was going to return to consistency. So much has happened in my life and this country that demands commentary, but I have not the time nor the fortitude to accomplish such a feat.

If I were to make a glorious return, you would find much less market commentary from a trading perspective. It would instead be replaced by commentary on macro-economic principles and policies. There would also be, to your chagrin, quite a few politically charged essays (the first of which would be a treatise on The Hijacking of Conservatism By the Religious Right and the Promotion of Such Perspectives by Progressive Ideologues.)

On the lighter side, there would be many more book reviews , as I have read 76 in the last 150 days. (On that note, if you enjoy Tolkienesque literature, David Eddings will knock your socks off.) There would be some mention of sports since OSU has improved in football, and the Yankees won. The only substantial update on the scotch front would be Royal Lochnagar. And of course there would be a column dedicated to the exploits of my son, who is much better looking than his father.

So as you can see, there is a lot to cover and very little time. By the end of the year (if not already), I will have billed over 1000 hours of overtime at work. When I am home, I am consumed by my family and friend(s). There just isn't enough time to do this the way I would like, so I will do it in a fashionably half-assed way. When the stars align so that I have the inspiration and the time to deliver my thoughts, I will. When they do not, I won't. Until then, please enjoy the evidence of my family's genetic superiority.

... by any other name

2008-08-20T00:46:00.005-06:00

While I have failed to keep with my ideal posting record, I am trying to keep up. You know how it is. When life is organized with even the slightest semblance of structure, it is easy to keep with routine. When chaos takes the place of structure, even the simplest of tasks can fall by the wayside. Laundry piles up; the dishes grow little green and white things; and blogs fail to keep with current events. But I digress…

As my last post mentioned, our boy will be Alberto Antonio Colabella il Quarto. However, we had some trouble settling on what we would actually call him. Ab would be kind of confusing in the household seeing as how there would be two of us. Albert is not quite en vogue with the times… it will probably take about 30 years for that to happen. We have settled on Anthony. It is a good name I think. The Wife is insistent that no one call him Tony, and I happen to agree. Nicknames, of course, are welcome, and I would love to hear some preliminary ideas in the comments section. In fact, Adam has already settled on Q, which, quite frankly, kicks some serious ass.

I will be back, hopefully soon, and next time I will take it easy on the italics.

Now I Will Apologize

2008-07-22T18:48:00.004-06:00

Greetings from a minus one star hotel in Hutchinson, Kansas. It is here that I play Xbox and watch movies for about 250 bones per day... but we will talk about my job another time. I would, however, like to discuss some other things today.

First off, I have plenty of reasons but no excuse for my absence. Actually, the excuse is laziness. I have had a full plate since the beginning of May, but not busy enough to have only posted 2 times in the 1,992 hours. My sincerest apologies for falling behind.

Now we can move on to more important current events. In order to revisit my previous blogger's attitude of consistency, I will have several posts over the next few days to discuss these items. We will start with the most exciting piece of news first.

As you know, The Wife and I recently departed from the moral cesspool that is Utah to seek fortune and glory. Instead, we got pregnant. Even though we are having to put our search for El Dorado on hold, we couldn't be happier.

The first trimester taught us that the "morning" part of morning sickness is merely a formality, and that it is indeed useless. It should just be called "sickness", or "all the damn time sickness". This idea of "morning" sickness does nothing more than cause one to set unrealistic expectations. In our case, the all the damn time sickness lasted a few weeks past the first trimester, so The Wife went through quite a rough time. I tried my best to be accommodating to her needs, but I'm sure I could have done better. For the most part, my duties were relegated to late night trips to the fridge for water.

Recently though, the sickness has seemed to have waned and has substituted itself with ravenous hunger. The cause of the hunger is evidenced via the stomach expansion project taking place where the baby seems to be doubling in size every other week or so. He is a hungry one. Thats right... HE is a hungry one. So many friends and family members were so sure it was a girl that we started to believe it. We believed it so much that we were down to two names. However, il codice genetico di Colabella prevailed in historic fashion supplying the Y chromosome. We are thinking about doing a baseball theme for the nursery in our new house (future post), but of course, The Wife has the veto card of pregnancy and perpetual indecision.

As for the name, he will the Albert IV. I must admit, I was wavering on the continuation of that name just a bit, but it was set in stone on the 8th of this month when Albert Sr. passed away (future post). I find that it is a very honorable name given the circumstances.

That will be all for now.

Out.

Reasons For Not Posting

2008-05-19T12:28:00.002-06:00

I know that there is very little in the way of excuses. But if you will give me leave to explain what, I feel, are some pretty solid reasons for being the absentee landlord of The Pub. The following are in no particular order of import.

1. Moved to Tulsa
2. Looking for supplemental income
3. Looking for a house/apartment
4. No immediate or convenient access to internet (I am at Borders right now)
5. Went to Ohio for 3 days to see Gramps who seems to be on his last legs
6. I AM GOING TO BE A FATHER (8 weeks 4 days)
7. Taking care of Brandi (see item 6)
8. I have cable tv for the first time in years

I wont go so far as to say "I make no apologies" or any type of over-defensive retort, but I do feel slightly justified in my absence.

Thank you for your patience and know that I will be back over the next few weeks to discuss some of the information on the above list.

Oh yeah, since my last market post, we have been in a rather steady uptrend, which has been nice. Options get cheaper etc. It has afforded about a 15% ROR over the last few weeks, so that has been nice. Fundamentally, I am still bearish because of the nature of the global economic fuck-up that we are experiencing. Technically, bullish, because... well... thats what the charts say. I know it may not make much sense, but the markets can and will be illogical. The questions is can you remain solvent during this period of time and stop worrying about being "right".

Mi Dispiace Ma...

2008-05-05T14:10:00.002-06:00

...La Famiglia Colabella will be relocating.

I have been out here for about 18 months and the wife has been here just over a year. After this amount of time, we have decided that we just can't take it anymore. The city sucks, the mountains suck, the people suck, we don't have any friends here, etc. etc.

Actually, that is all a lie. I have very little desire to move back to Oklahoma. I have created some great relationships out here with my trading buddies Armstrong and Batzel. Even though I didn't get to spend much time with Skylar, I will certainly miss his crazy ass, and look forward to continuing business with him until we are both satisfied with the results. Of course, the biggest loss lies with Benjamin, and The Carters. They are my three (and a half) of best friends in the world, and it is sad to leave them. The dark side of the force is already beckoning them home. Having said that, we are getting back Adam, Ray, and Matt and Payton.

The subtraction of mountains and addition of allergies are certainly reasons to hang one's self. Also, I will miss Mad Greek as I do not believe that an acceptable substitute awaits in Green Country.

But there are two things I will be happy to leave. Bad religion and bad food. Don't get me wrong, Mormons are some of the kindest people I have ever met, but holy shit they are nuts! Unfortunately, their ethical and moral "skills set" has affected (destroyed) the culture of the city and have made it the most bland existence EVER. However, trading them for Southern Baptists is kind of like trading cigarettes for smokeless tobacco.

The big upside is cost of living and food. Taco Bueno, Mazzio's, Braum's, Ron's, Cheddar's, Charleston's, Bennigan's, and the list goes on. The cost of a regular house built 50 years ago in Utah is probably around 220k. In Tulsa, you can get there for about 128k.

In Tulsa, we will be shopping for a house. The Wife will start work, and I will continue trading. I will be back in Utah soon for a little while to wrap up things there and get the Land Rover. Until then, all of our contact information remains the same.

Hopefully now, it is clear why this is my first post in about 3 weeks. We have had quite a bit on our plate. I will continue to be hit and miss for a little bit longer, but hope to get back in the groove of regularity soon. I will be back.

Joke (on Kansas) of the Week

2008-04-09T18:18:00.001-06:00

Cowboys will pursue Kansas Self with $4M salary, $6M bonus

According to numerous media reports, Oklahoma State is prepared to offer Kansas coach Bill Self, win or lose tonight, a salary of $4 million a year, plus a $6 million signing bonus. That would not only nearly triple the $1.375 million he makes at Kansas but would fly past the $3.5 million paid the current highest-paid coach, Florida's Billy Donovan.

The impetus behind it is T. Boone Pickens, Oklahoma State's $3 billion "booster." Pickens wants an Oklahoma State man to coach Oklahoma State. Self played at Oklahoma State from 1982-85, assisted Leonard Hamilton and Eddie Sutton at OSU for seven years and was raised in the Oklahoma City suburb of Edmond. His father, Bill Sr., was director of Oklahoma's state high school activities association.

When Sean Sutton's resignation surfaced, Self tried hard to curb the rumors, saying: "If they were to ask me what they should do, I would suggest they go a different direction."

But his attorney, Stuart Campbell, told the Tulsa World on Friday, "I am completely in wait-and-see mode. I never say never. They would have to be eye-popping numbers."

Source: Denver Post

It Was a Very Good Year

2008-04-08T17:52:00.019-06:00

So yesterday was a pretty good day. I got married on April 7 one year ago. It was a pretty low key anniversary, but it was still special. There are these candle things that Lilith the Lioness gave us, and we got to burn the "one year anniversary candles."

We had a great first year including some good travel to Napa, Denver, and Vegas... not to mention we moved to Utah. Here are some highlights.

This is our first picture as a married couple (besides the money pit that is professional wedding photos). We went to the bar with some friends to hang out since it was the last time we would see any of them for a year or so. Yes... I look stoned. No Mom... I am not stoned. Yes Mom... I did marry way out of my league.

We got some great seats to the A's on the honeymoon, and a few weeks later we flew to Denver to catch a game and eat at Uno's. That hot dog on the left there... you see it? Pure shit.

This one is at the August Briggs vineyard in Napa Valley. I could be wrong, but I think it is the first one we visited while we were there.

Another honeymoon picture. This was some type of "look out point" with those ridiculous view finders that last 15 seconds. Ask Brandi about Alcatraz when you get the chance.

Brandi took me to Vegas for my birthday and she actually won about $300...

... and she spent it all on this drink!

This is our first Christmas together. You can tell because of those small lights just over her shoulder... it really should be obvious people.

So like I said, it was a pretty good year. Hell, it was a great year. I'm looking forward to many more just like it. I love you Brandi.

(Oh yeah, we have at least 3 huge blow up fights a week. I couldn't find any pictures of those.)

Joke of the Week: In Honor of Opening Week

2008-04-02T12:46:00.003-06:00

On a tour of Florida, the Pope took a couple of days off to visit the coast for some sightseeing. He was cruising along the beach in the Popemobile when there was a frantic commotion just off shore. A helpless man, wearing a Boston Red Sox jersey, was struggling frantically to free himself from the jaws of a 25-foot shark.

As the Pope watched, horrified, a speedboat came racing up with three men wearing New York Yankees jerseys aboard. One quickly fired a harpoon into the shark's side. The other two reached out and pulled the bleeding, semi-conscious Red Sox fan from the water. Then using autographed Derek Jeter baseball bats, the three Bronx heroes beat the shark to death and hauled it into the boat.

Immediately the Pope shouted and summoned them to the beach. "I give you my blessing for your brave actions," he told them. "I heard that there was some bitter hatred between Red Sox and Yankee fans, but now I have seen with my own eyes that this is not the truth."

As the Pope drove off, the harpooner asked his buddies, "Who was that?"

"It was the Pope," one replied. "He is in direct contact with God and has access to all of God's wisdom."

"Well," the harpooner said, "he may have access to God's wisdom, but he doesn't know shit about shark fishing…how's the bait holding up?"

And Finally Some Good News

2008-04-01T11:35:00.005-06:00

I wanted Bill Self for the job a few years ago, but Roy Williams got called home to Chapel Hill. My wife says "we hired the wrong son". I am inclined to agree. Even though it is not the biggest or best program in the country (or even the BIG XII), Oklahoma State Basketball is not a program to be inherited or handed down like some fucking rag doll. All that bullshit about "Sean has been doing the coaching for years and Eddie has just been the face of the program." Are you kidding me? It appears that I was right not to trust that vile and poisonous propaganda.

In his two years as "official" head coach, he barely broke .500 and lost in the first round of the NIT... twice. I have been fuming from afar in the mountains about this... silently, waiting to plot my revenge on the boosters, the AD, the Head of Operations, the President of the university. I had to get rid of Sean Sutton.

BUT WAIT!!! GOOD NEWS!!!

That pezzo di merda has been removed from our sight roughly 8 years before I thought he would be. In a small town like Stillwater, a name carries a lot of weight. I was truly afraid that he would rest on his father's laurels for a decade before someone finally grew a brain and got a real coach.

Now that he is out, who is in? I, for one, would like to pursue Self a little bit more, but he is a Final Four coach now, so don't spin the wheels. Do we go for the other son Scott? How about Sean Miller from Xavier? Thoughts people. And I mean you Deuce... and you CP.

6-4-3

2008-03-27T11:29:00.006-06:00

Every year I try to pick a team. This isn't about winning or losing. Hell, they could come in last place and I wouldn't care. The point isn't bragging rights or having the ability to say "I was rooting for them at the beginning of the year." There really isn't a system of selection or method to the madness.

Take the Rockies for example. Last year, I started rooting for the Rockies because I went to Coors Field with my wife in April. I also have a (very very light... as in fraternity parties light... as in I don't really know him I'm just trying to drop a name light) personal acquaintance with Matt Holliday. So last year I used the Rockies as my healing salve, but it had nothing to do with them winning virtually every game from September 1 to the end of the year. It had nothing to do with them making it to The Series against all odds. It had nothing to do with any of that. There are two reasons (one big, and one VERY big) that I try to pick a team that will have my support from April to October.

Reason the 1st (the big one): It is easy as a fan of baseball to get caught up in "your" team every year and forget about the other 29 teams. The problem here is October. If for some reason "your" team doesn't make it, you could care less about the playoffs or the Fall Classic. That is just not right. It isn't fair to your fanhood.

Embracing secondary teams every year will eventually lead to a fuller, more appreciative knowledge of the sport as a whole. Will you really give a shit if this year's Classic is Diamondbacks vs. White Sox? Neither will I, because I know virtually nothing about those two teams. Hence the need for a fuller, more appreciative knowledge of the sport as a whole.

Reason the 2nd (the VERY big one): Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum... err... Dumb and Dumber... err... Aids and Cancer... err... Cashman and Steinbrenner.

Now I'm one of the most pure family based Yankees fans around, but those two names give me agita every time I hear them. There has been no end to my frustration of their moves since about 1999. How much money have they wasted? Names like Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Randy Johnson, and more recently Roger Clemens (pro-rated $28 million for 6 wins) make me want to shoot someone. What happened to Paulie and Tino, Brocious and Bernie?

These two mezzofinooks have destroyed a very proud franchise for almost a decade by signing over the hill, ex all-stars and overpaying them to be past their prime. There have been four guys you can depend on. Jeter, Rivera, Posada, and Torre (whom they fired at the end of last season). It has gotten so bad that I am dreading the prospects of them actually signing Bonds.

And by the way, I can't believe I'm getting ready to say this, but I wish George was still healthy. Hank Steinbrenner is a son of a bitch... not to mention a little oobatz.

I will say this though...

Not too long ago, I realized that my eyes were blinded by the veil that was the firing of Joe Torre. Once I stopped seeing red, I noticed that the front office was actually starting to give me what I have wanted for so long: youth. Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, and Cano... not to mention the new Skip, Joe Girardi. These guys have given me a boost of belief that Dildo and Fuckface are actually planning for the future.

But I digress. Back to Reason the 2nd (the very big one). I gotta have a distraction from the frustrations of being a fan of the Yankees.

So I ask. Who will it be? What team will be my distraction, my salvation? And I answer:

Thats right! The San Francisco Giants will be the other white meat this year. "But why?" you ask. "Why that team Ab? Surely you would root for the Dodgers since Torre went there."

You are right for raising such queries. I have even asked myself the same questions. Though I do not feel the need to justify my selection, I will boil it down to 1 word: respect. Read this article and then come back.

Pretty impressive right? That team is so ready to move on from the Bonds freakshow that they are scrubbing the walls and revamping the whole thing. Did you see that part about a plaque to commemorate his accomplishment? I once received one of those for "employee of the week" at Tony Roma's. Any team that is willing to remove itself from its only means of popularity in order to start fresh and rebuild gets my interest. There is a lot of hope there, and I intend to follow it.

Joke of the Week

2008-03-26T15:28:00.003-06:00

Three women had a very late night drinking. They left in the early morning hours and went home their separate ways.

The next day, they all met and compared notes about who was drunker the night before. The first girl claims that she was the drunkest, saying, “I drove straight home and
walked into the house. As soon as I got through the door, I blew chunks.”

The second said, “You think that was drunk? Hell, I got into my car and wrapped my car around the first tree I saw. I don’t even have insurance!”

The third proclaimed, “Damn, I was the drunkest by far. When I got home, I got into a big fight with my husband, knocked a candle over, and burned the whole house down!”

The room was silent for a moment. Then, the first girl spoke out again, “Listen girls, I don’t think you understand. Chunks is my dog.”

Market Wrap- Week 12

2008-03-23T23:40:00.002-06:00

THE TAPE:

UP

THE STORY:

This has been a week of "firsts" as recent history is concerned. It was the first week that the broad markets have shown a meaningful gain. It was also the first weekend in quite a while where my wife and I had consecutive days alone, so my enthusiasm to post has waned. I will most likely make up for it later this week.

In short, anything could happen this week. Credit ratings companies has reversed their opinions that the outlook for the financial sector is positive. That said, it looks like we are putting in higher lows and higher highs in quite a few of the sectors which tells us that there is a bottom coming in those areas. Commodities and metals are falling off (hope you took profits in gold). Talk to you soon.

Joke of the Week

2008-03-19T09:09:00.000-06:00

On his last day on the job, a mailman is greeted by a young housewife who invites him in for breakfast. After the feast she leads him to the bedroom for an extensive sexual romp. Afterward she gives him two dollars.

“Jeez,” says the mailman, “this is great, but what’s with the two dollars?”

“Well,” she replies, “since you’re retiring, I asked my husband what we should do for you. He said, ‘Fuck him—give him a couple of bucks.’ Breakfast was my idea.”

From the Library... "Confessions" Pt. 1

2008-03-18T13:12:00.001-06:00

This most recent read came by way of the great BSC. Now this type of book is not my usual brand of vodka, but Doodah approached me during a veritable perfect storm. The title in question is Confessions of an Economic Hit Man by John Perkins. The reasons are too many to enumerate why I wouldn't usually read a book of this nature. However, the perfect storm came in the form of a History Channel show about secret societies followed by quite a conversation based on conspiracy theories. The book was introduced to me the next day.

Without going to deep in detail, I will give you the "reader response options":

1. You believe the things in this book, and are disturbed if not a little nauseous.
2. You do not believe the things in this book, and curse it as inflammatory and anti-American.
3. You have no opinion because you don't understand it.
4. You have no opinion because you don't care.

Regardless of any feelings one may have regarding the ideas in this book, you are guaranteed to take part in some great conversations with other people who have read the book or are interested in it.

As for myself, I am inclined to believe many of the things in this book in conjunction with other books, shows, and personal observations. So that this post does not take too much of my dear readers' time, I will cut it short here and be back another day with more intricate thoughts.

Happy St. Patty's Day!

2008-03-17T01:33:00.005-06:00

Here at The Pub we would like to wish everyone a very happy St. Patrick's Day. Also we would like to encourage everyone to be safe as they indulge in some of the finest vices this world has to offer. The official Pub itinerary for this year's celebration will be as follows:

1) Green Beer
2) Irish Car Bomb
3) Irish Whiskey
4) Rinse and Repeat

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 11

2008-03-16T17:49:00.001-06:00

THE TAPE:
DOW: +58 (+o.48%)
S&P: -5 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: unchanged
RUSSELL: +3 (+0.31%)

THE STORY:

For those of us that trade a primarily directional strategy (puts/calls, longs/shorts), this week was just a big pain in the ass. For those that trade delta neutral strategies (spreads etc.) this week was ideal. The volatility/range this week was enough to make even the most salty of sailors seasick (pardon the alliteration). So what caused all of the volatility? Here it is blow by blow:

Monday was nothing more than a nice continuation of the previous week's selling.

Then Tuesday, ol' Jackass decided to throw another $200 billion (with a b) at the credit market. Here is a snippet from Yahoo! Finance: Wall Street rebounded sharply Tuesday after the Federal Reserve and other central banks said they will pump $200 billion into the financial markets to help ease the strain from the credit crisis. Get this... the government has now thrown over $1 trillion (with a t) at the market since October. I mean holy shit! This and the $500 billion (with a b) war in the Middle East, and we still keep printing money. But I digress. As a result of Jackass and his "benevolence" errrrrr.... stupidity, the market jumped HUGE.

On Wednesday, the mindless buying continued until the Commerce Department reported that the United States' trade deficit grew larger in January to $58.2 billion (with a b). This sobered up the bulls and some very healthy selling ensued.

On Thursday, the selling continued in the 1st hour of trading until the S&P came out with a report that the sub-prime and credit write downs were pretty much over for the large banks and brokers. In short "we are in the clear". This report was met with more buying and the market ended up pretty large.

On Friday we learned that the guys at S&P are real fucking jerks as Bear Stearns and Co. (BSC) admitted that they are in "dire financial straits". Thanks for the Thursday report S&P! The result was a complete reversal of Thursday's buying and the market ended up virtually unchanged for the week.

This is a 5 day chart of the S&P 500 with labels of the play by play:

So you can see a couple things here. 1) We had some unbelievable moves this last week. 2) We ended the week pretty much exactly where we started.

THE WEEK AHEAD: more of the same.

To begin with, it is a short week with the market closed on Good Friday. Also, Thursday is a triple witching. What is triple witching you ask? It is considered a "witching" on days when contracts expire. The "triple" comes in when equity options, index options, and futures expire all on the same day. When this happens there is a historically large amount of volatility that week because market makers are being tight asses on the spreads that they offer, and traders (institutional and retail alike) are running to take profits or to shore up losses.

Monday is St. Patrick's Day which has been an up day 75% of the time. Thursday before Good Friday has been a down day 80% of the time. I could go on and on pulling stats and quotes from the Stock Trader's Almanac to support the idea that this will be another rocky week, but you and I both know that the market is in an area where a decision must be made. Remember that LINE I mentioned last week? There will be a pretty big territorial pissing match between the bulls and bears over that line, and until there is a clear winner, it is going to be wild.

Also, there will be no watch list or charts provided until there is a clear winner of that fight. I would hate to lay a ton of bearish ideas on the line while the market is finding a bottom. Hang on tight this week.

Oh yeah... I almost forgot. Genius does have its rewards.

Phewww!

2008-03-14T14:00:00.002-06:00

Last week the sentiment was "what a week". This week could also qualify as "what a week" but with daily doses of asprin and pepto. I will be back in a day or so explaining why this was such a turbulent market week. For this weekend, I really want you to clear the mechanism. And I really do mean it this time. I will be up to the same tomfoolery this weekend as last. Tonight is curling (and the wife has brought some new recruits) with a possible visit to the public house afterward, with a definite 12 years old waiting in the wings. If you got your ass handed to you this week, shake it off and prepare for more of the same next week. I'll be back with more.

Joke of the Week Pt. 2: An Homage to Women

2008-03-12T18:37:00.002-06:00

This week's joke supplied by BAC.

Joke of the Week

2008-03-12T12:35:00.005-06:00

A woman meets a man at a bar and goes back to his place at the end of the night. When they enter his bedroom, she’s surprised to find that his walls are lined with hundreds of teddy bears of all different sizes.

“Wow,” says the woman. “It’s nice to meet a man who’s so sensitive.”

They proceed to make passionate love, and after finally climaxing, the woman rolls off the guy and asks, “Well, how was it?”

“Terrific,” he replies. “You can take any prize from the bottom shelf.”

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 10

2008-03-09T22:08:00.010-06:00

THE TAPE:
DOW: -373 (-3.03%)
S&P: -37 (-2.84%)
NASDAQ: -59 (-2.67)
RUSSELL: -26 (-3.73%)

THE STORY:
I hope everyone took my advice and had a nice relaxing weekend. I'll tell you what... curling is not so much relaxing but a big kick in the ass. I will have more on that in a later post.

I'll be quick.

Last week was exactly what we thought it was going to be. Hopefully, you were on board the short side of the market. I present the S&P:

Given that we still have some downside to go, I have found a few charts that could be interesting in the coming weeks.

And now time for the reality check. On the DOW, we have passed down below the very psychologically important 12k line. However, there is a lot of mess stacked up against us in the form of support. The next chart you will see is a 10 year chart on the DOW. I have drawn in a rather significant line with three points of interest. The first point is the peak of the tech bubble before one of the most magnificent bear markets we have ever had. The second point is the mid year peak in '06 when we failed to break the previous all time high (see point 1). The third point took place about 4 or 5 weeks ago when the world market had a serious breakdown and subsequent recovery all within a 48 hour time frame, a la Jackass and his emergency rate cut.

All this to say, we are drawing ever nearer to that line. In fact, for our short term triangle to be a success, we need to actually BREAK the line. I don't really know what to do about this other than wait. The point right now is awareness. Consider yourself informed.

This week, I would not be surprised if we consolidate a bit to the upside and then head south again. Be patient yet aggressive and kick some ass.

What a Week!

2008-03-07T14:06:00.005-07:00

If you were paying attention last week you should have had a ball over the last five days of trading. As always I will be back later on to highlight some of this weeks moves and forecast some more brilliance for you. Until then, my advice is to uncork that bottle of 10 years old and take in a movie. As a trader you need to make sure to clear the mechanism over the weekend no matter what the previous week's results. For me, it is good Chinese, a bottle of Uigeadail (review pending), good friends, and curling. See you soon.

Joke of the Week

2008-03-05T03:45:00.004-07:00

A Florida senior citizen drove his brand new Corvette convertible out of the dealership. Taking off down the road, he pushed it to 80 mph, enjoying the wind blowing through what little hair he had left.

'Amazing,' he thought as he flew down I-75, pushing the pedal even more. Looking in his rear view mirror, he saw the state trooper behind him, blue lights flashing and siren blaring.

He floored it to 100 mph, then 110, then 120. Suddenly he thought, 'What am I doing? I'm too old for this,' and pulled over to await the trooper's arrival.

Pulling in behind him, the trooper walked up to the Corvette, looked at his watch and said, 'Sir, my shift ends in 30 minutes. Today is Friday. If you can give me a reason for speeding that I've never heard before, I'll let you go.'

The old gentleman paused then said, 'Three years ago, my wife ran off with a Florida State Trooper. I thought you were bringing her back.'

'Have a good day, Sir,' replied the trooper.

This weeks joke supplied by BRS

Market Wrap Addendum

2008-03-03T08:43:00.008-07:00

Here are a few items on my watch list for the week:

Bulls: GOLD, GLD, DBA, CF, POT
Bears: APH, WBD, RGA, GVA, FFH, FLIR

If you have any questions let me know. This week is going to kick some serious ass. Don't miss out.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 9

2008-03-02T19:37:00.006-07:00

THE TAPE:
DOW: -115 (-0.94%)
S&P: -23 (-1.65%)
NASDAQ: -32 (-1.36%)
RUSSELL: -9 (-1.28%)

THE STORY:

Every economic announcement that was released reflected what we already know: bad things. Ol' Jackass talked to congress for a while and pretty much told them what I have already told you... another 50 basis points in March. All you homeowners (if you have equitable room) may want to think about refinancing this summer. We probably have 2 more cuts coming after this one. He also talked about stagflation worries... which we also already knew. Oil broke $100, commodities are through the roof, and gold is up to $975. The problem comes in when I say those prices are going up and the value of the $$$$ continues to fall.

The GREAT news is that we know how to profit when everyone else is miserable, and we have what appears to be some pretty clear direction. The triangles I have been talking about for the last couple of weeks are becoming decisive. Take a look at two time frames on the S&P:

Also, take a look at LM. We have talked about this one for a least a month now. Talk about a clear break...
Feel free to jump on that train any time. It could take a while, I am looking at about a $47 price target on this one, which matches up with lows from 2004. Happy selling (or buying puts) this next week(s). Take a look at last weeks watch lists for some bearish ideas. A relatively low cost, semi-conservative play would be on the index ETFs. Those are QQQQ, DIA, SPY, and IWM.

Manage risk. That is all that matters.

Poll Results

2008-02-29T14:24:00.002-07:00

I learned a few things from the poll that has been open for the last 5 days:

1)
2) Never conduct a poll again. You guys are some lazy fucking bastards.

3) Of the people that actually did vote, the only consensus that was reached was that no one wants the Market Wrap to go away... which is nice.

Also, I am going to widen the publisher's deadline on the Market Wrap. By the time the market closes on Friday, I need to go see a movie or have a Caol Ila 12 years old (neat). Therefore, you can expect the Market Wrap any time between 2pm on Friday and midnight Sunday MST. That should give you blood sucking, non participating, lazy ass bastards plenty of solace when your precious watch lists don't come out immediately after the close on Friday. See you soon.

Please Vote

2008-02-27T14:28:00.002-07:00

According to Statcounter.com, there have been at least 30 people on this blog over the last two or three days, but there have only been three votes cast (and one of them was mine).

I need some input folks. If you don't care what I do, great, cast your ballot and tell me. That is specifically why there is an "I could give a shit" selection.

Again, you can find the poll just to the left of this post. Thanks.

Joke of the Week

2008-02-27T13:39:00.005-07:00

A businessman is getting ready to go on a long business trip. He knows his wife is always horny, so he decides to get her something to keep her occupied while he was gone, because he didn't much like the idea of her screwing someone else.

So he went to a store that sold sex toys and started looking around. He thought about a life-sized sex doll, but that was too close to another man for him. He was browsing through the dildos, looking for something special to please his wife, and started talking to the old man behind the counter. He explained his situation, to the old man.

"Well, I don't really know of anything that will do the trick. We have vibrating dildos, special attachments, and so on, but I don't know of anything that will keep her occupied for weeks, except …" said the old man, and then he stopped.

"Except what?" asked the businessman.

"Nothing, nothing," said the old man.

"C'mon, tell me! I need something!" protested the businessman.

"Well, sir, I don't usually mention this, but there is the 'voodoo dildo,'" the old man said.

"The voodoo dildo?" the businessman asked.

The old man reached under the counter, and pulled out an old wooden box carved with strange symbols. He opened it, and there lay a very ordinary-looking dildo. The businessman laughed, and said, "Big fucking deal. It looks like every other dildo in this shop!"

The old man said, "But you haven't seen what it'll do yet."

He pointed to a door and said "Voodoo dildo, the door."

The voodoo dildo rose out of its box, darted over to the door, and started screwing the keyhole. The whole door shook with the vibrations, and a crack developed down the middle. Before the door could split, the old man said, "Voodoo dildo, box!"

The voodoo dildo stopped, floated back to the box and lay there, motionless.

The businessman said, "I'll take it!"

The guy took it home to his wife, told her it was a special dildo and that to use it, all she had to do was say, "Voodoo dildo, my pussy."

He left for his trip satisfied things would be fine while he was gone.

After he'd been gone a few days, the wife was unbearably horny. She thought of several people who would willingly satisfy her, but then she remembered the voodoo dildo. She lay down, placed the box between her legs, and said "Voodoo dildo, my pussy!" The voodoo dildo shot to her crotch and started pumping. It was great, like nothing she'd ever experienced before.

After three orgasms, she decided she'd had enough, and tried to pull it out, but it was stuck in her, still thrusting. She tried and tried to get it out, but nothing worked. Her husband had forgot to tell her how to shut it off! So she decided to go to the hospital to see if they could help. She put her clothes on, got in the car and started to drive to the hospital, quivering with every thrust of the dildo. On the way, another orgasm nearly made her swerve off the road, and she was pulled over by a policeman. He asked for her license, and then asked how much she'd had to drink. Gasping and twitching, she explained that she hadn't been drinking, but that a voodoo dildo was stuck in her pussy, and wouldn't stop screwing her.

The officer looked at her for a second, and then said, "Yeah, right. Voodoo dildo, my ass!"

Masterpiece Theatre

2008-02-25T00:47:00.002-07:00

In attempts to make up for my last movie blunder I picked what I thought would be a safe bet. This week's movie was Vantage Point. I don't know anything about the writer or director of the movie, but the cast is pretty decent. I'm not too big on Dennis Quaid (in fact I often confuse him with Bill Paxton and Bill Pullman), but Forest Whitaker was top notch as always.

It was a pretty intense movie with an engaging plot line. The director used a lot of hand-held camera work a la Saving Private Ryan. If you enjoy a Usual Suspects plot line... that is, I have no clue what's going on, and towards the end all of the twists come together... you should enjoy this movie.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 8

2008-02-22T15:08:00.004-07:00

THE TAPE:
DOW: +33 (+0.25%)
S&P: +3 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ: -18 (-0.71%)
RUSSELL: -6 (-0.84%)

THE STORY:

There really is no story here. I suppose the only item of note would be the tremendous late Friday rally. It looked like we were going to break the recently mentioned triangle to the downside for the majority of Friday until the last 30 minute rally by the bulls which kept the pattern intact. Take a look at some S&P charts:

Now zoomed in to a 5 day chart:

As far as charts for next week, we are still looking at quite a few triangles. The next list is comprised of stocks that have already broken, but are retesting for support/resistance levels for low risk re-entry/adds:

ADM, AEM, BVN, EDU, GOLD, NOV, YUM

The following are stocks that we are still patiently waiting on:

BCE, BCR, DIA, IWM, LM, LRCX, QQQQ, SPY, SWK

Lastly, I want to talk about MYGN for the final time. I took profits on this triangle play a couple of days ago right at the bottom. This will be our prime example of a descending triangle moving forward. Take a look at the charts:

Now zoomed in:

Final topic(s):

Moving into next week, lets just be patient and wait for a break in the major markets to pick a bias. Let me stress the word patient again... go back up and look at the chart from Friday on the S&P. If you go all in too early and get whipped out, its going to hurt, and then you are going to be too timid to get in on the real break and will miss out on quite a bit of profit.

I noticed a spike in user volume on Friday. This tells me that there are quite a few people interested in my Market Wrap posts. I would like to hear from you in the comments section. Whatever you want to learn/talk about is important for this particular topic. I will try my hand at an online poll, but until then let me know your thoughts. Thanks.

*UPDATE*
The online poll is open until next Thursday. Please only vote once so there is no skew in the results. You can find the poll on the left side of the blog under the "about me" section.

Joke of the Week

2008-02-20T13:11:00.003-07:00

One day Mom is cleaning Junior's room and
finds a kinky S&M magazine. She hides it
until dad gets home and shows it to him.
"What should we do about this?" she asks.
"Well, I don't think you should spank him."

Single Malt Archives

2008-02-16T00:19:00.008-07:00

The Juice: Ardbeg 10 year old

This Islay malt has been named the official 2008 World Whiskey of the year by Jim Murray in his annual Whiskey Bible. They were open for over 150 years before they had to close the doors in the early '80s. In 1997 the distillery was re-opened in full force with the financial backing of Glenmorangie. It is one of the "Big 3" distilleries in South Islay.

The Notes:

Color: Pale straw
Nose: Peat smoke, soot, light apple or lime, floral notes
Palate: tar, leather, peat
Finish: Peat smoke, soot

The Verdict: 8.5/10

I don't know that there is such a thing as too much smoke, but if there is, its in this bottle. It is much heavier than Caol Ila, especially in the nose. Try it with an aged cheddar or nice cigar if you want to cut a little bit of the smoke. However, if you are like me, you want all the smoke you can get. Throw about 5 drops of water in there and it will release some of those aromas. Ardbeg has a lifetime pass in the rotation, and will always be available in my bar.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 7

2008-02-15T12:25:00.012-07:00

THE TAPE:
DOW +166 (+1.42%)
S&P +19 (+1.41%)
NASDAQ +17 (+0.77%)
RUSSELL +3 (+0.43%)

THE STORY:

This week we had a pretty volatile range because of two loudmouth guys. First, Warren Buffett came out and declared that he was backing bond issuers and offered stops to the credit market. That sent the market higher. Second was good ol' Jackass. He finally admitted (in public) that the economy may be a little worse than he had originally thought. That sent the market lower. He followed that up with a virtual guarantee on the March Fed meetings resulting in another rate cut.

Interesting though... last month, if he said ANYTHING about potential future rate cuts, the DOW would have gone up 200-300 points in about 5 minutes. This week, it was the beginning of the end of the "Buffett Rally". I think The Street has finally decided that his bark and his bite are both pretty weak.

From a technical standpoint, we now have some ideas to support the retest and possible break of prior lows. Take a look at the DOW.So we have a pretty nice consolidation over the last couple of weeks and the triangle is shaping up pretty nicely. Triangles can be used to forecast future moves by time and distance. On the same chart (zoomed in), take a look at the last time we had a triangle that broke down:

You will find that, most of the time, when a major index sets up in a certain pattern or trend, it is reflected in individual stocks as well. Here are some triangles to watch for the next week or so. I have left the charts out because of the length of the list: ADM, BCE, BVN, CMI, CTRP, FNM, FRE, GILD, GLD, HANS, HOS, ITC, JEC, LM, LRCX, NOV, NUE, PDGI, SLB, STJ, SWK, YUM.

Since we have talked about MYGN for the last couple of weeks, I thought it appropriate continue the follow up. For those who took profit, congrats. For those waiting for the next level... well... take a look:

At the next support area, I am most likely going to shed at least half my position, if not take the whole thing to the bank. That area of support represents the target price for the triangle that prompted the trade in the first place.

You will also notice that GLD is in the list above. If you have been frustrated that you have missed prior moves in the metal, perhaps a break of the pattern would be an appropriate entry point.

A Letter From Jason Statham

2008-02-14T09:13:00.006-07:00

The following is a letter I received from Jason Statham. He has become a good friend of mine over the years, and we like to correspond from time to time. The most recent letter was particularly entertaining, so I thought I would share it with you (please note that I take no responsibility for his language). And he writes:

Dear Ab,

Its been quite a while mate. I mean what the fuck, Ab? I have tried to get a hold of you for a couple of months now. You sure have some fucking minerals to be dodging me you prick. Jesus, you're worse than Kelly aren't you? I tried to send her a Valentine's card and it got sent back to me.

I don't particularly like Valentine's Day. Now its not as though I had some heart breaking bullshit sob story about how the only girl I ever loved broke up with me 10 years ago on Valentine's Day and now I wear black... I just don't like it. But I don't not like it either. Its any other bleeding day to me mate.

As I see it, Valentine's Day is just another corporate fist fuck to the consumer. You go to a job you hate and get underpaid. So on your miserably tiny pay day you think to yourself, "I've got the rent, the car, and the university loans taken care of with just enough left to eat off of the dollar menu once a day for the next two weeks." Then it hits you: "Well fuck me, I have to go to the store for a dozen red ones, a 24 count of Ghirardelli, and some fucking massage oil. Looks like its Ramen for me." And for what Ab? Because some fat prick in New York City decided it would be a good idea to set the expectation of a dozen red ones, a 24 count of Ghirardelli, and some fucking massage oil? You're havin' a bath. Its not like we're talking about a fucking anniversary or birthday are we?

If you ask me, a proper lady shouldn't even want anything on Valentine's Day because its fucking expected. Men are always hearing all this "spontaneity" and "surprise me" bullshit coming from their lady friends. The whole thing is bollocks. If I am going to be a gentleman, I will be one because its fucking Thursday... not some fucking trumped up "holiday".

But I digress...

If you don't give me a call soon, its your ass mate. Tell that tasty treat of a wife of your's that I'm here if she ever needs to be satisfied. God knows you are all of three inches you bastard.

Cheers,

Jason

ps: Do not, under any circumstances, see my latest movie. It was a bloody joke. There, I warned you.

I thought that would be pretty entertaining since today is Valentine's Day. I can't say that I disagree with the guy. Brandi and I don't really make a big fuss over Valentine's. I would say that my feelings about the day are that I "nothing" Valentine's Day. If we do something nice, great. If we don't, so what?

The most important part for me is to do my best (which I rarely do) to make Brandi feel like most days are special. Like Jason said, "If I am going to be a gentleman, I will be one because its fucking Thursday... not some fucking trumped up 'holiday'."

Joke of the Week

2008-02-13T13:02:00.007-07:00

A woman was in bed with her lover when she heard her husband opening the front door. “Hurry!” she said. “Stand in the corner.” She quickly rubbed baby oil all over him and then she dusted him with talcum powder. “Don’t move until I tell you to,” she whispered. “Just pretend you’re a statue.”

“What’s this, honey?” the husband inquired as he entered the room. “Oh, it’s just a statue,” she replied nonchalantly. “The Smith’s bought one for their bedroom. I liked it so much, I got one for us, too.” No more was said about the statue, not even later that night when they went to sleep.

Around two o’ clock in the morning the husband got out of bed, went to the kitchen and returned a while later with a sandwich and a glass of milk. “Here,” he said to the ‘statue,’ “Eat something. I stood like an idiot at the Smiths’ for three days, and nobody offered me so much as a glass of water.”

Single Malt Archives

2008-02-09T17:52:00.000-07:00

The Juice: Caol Ila 12 year old

For more than 100 years small coal-fired “puffers” like the SS Pibroch brought barley, coal and empty casks to the distillery, returning the whisky to the mainland through the strait that divides Islay and Jura, the Sound of Islay – in Gaelic, “Caol Ila” (cull eela). The distillery was founded in 1846, but now 11 men do the work that 32 used to do.

The Notes:

Color: Pale straw
Nose: Citrus, coal smoke, olive oil
Palate: Light sweetness, salt, smoke
Finish: Sweet smoke, slightly sour, coal

The Verdict: 9.0/10

This could quite possibly be "the one". At first, I wasn't expecting much, but was blown away by the quality. This is most likely the result of juxtaposition between presupposed expectation and reality. It is one of the heavier Islays, so be careful if you decide to give this one a go. Caol Ila has cemented its place in the rotation and will be a regular on the bar for years.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 6

2008-02-08T17:17:00.001-07:00

The Tape:
DOW -561 (-4.44%)
S&P -64 (-4.68%)
NASDAQ -109 (-4.76%)
RUSSELL -32 (-4.33%)

The Story:
First, I must apologize for last week's post. I was running behind and was about 8 fingers into a nice bottle of Caol Ila (review pending). I wasn't quite up to the task of analysis or too much chart review, but this week I hope to remedy that.

If you look at the chart of the DOW from last week, you will see the defined level of resistance the market was up against. It did not fail to hold. If it is the jury's pleasure, I present Exhibit A:

We came off of that high like a waterfall didn't we? Now, you may want some kind of story or analysis as to why this happened. Let me put it this way. If I need to tell you, you haven't been reading my Market Wrap posts very thoroughly and you need a review.

Congratulations to anyone who has taken the MYGN short/put trade. It has turned out nicely. You will find some thoughts on Exhibit B:
So, February (not to mention the whole year to date) has been a dog so far. I'm not planning on seeing any improvements in the near term. Jackass has put himself in quite a position. The Fed Funds Rate has pretty much been cut in half over the last six months, and he doesn't have too much more room to go before he is giving away money for free. Don't get me wrong... we will see another 50 basis point cut in March, but it is dangerous to go too far. Wall Street knows this, so future cuts may not be met with a week of frenzied buying the way they have in the last couple of months. February will most likely see some more selling followed by consolidation followed by more selling followed by et cetera, et cetera. Since we are planning on that (right or wrong) here are a few charts to watch in the coming weeks.

Click the charts if you are having a tough time reading the notes.

As always, owning gold (GLD, GDX) is a good idea (I will say it until it hits $1000/oz). If you are looking at any charts or have ideas, I would love to hear about them. I may even highlight them on next weeks Market Wrap.

Joke of the Week

2008-02-06T20:17:00.000-07:00

So a baby seal walks into a club...

I'm sorry. I'm so sorry.

A Begrudgingliy Congratulatory Post

2008-02-04T13:56:00.001-07:00

Congratulations (cough) to the (sniff) New York Giants, who last night, upset the rather heavily favored New England Chowds to win the Super Bowl. I was torn during the game because of my two hates. Hate 1) Anything Boston. Hate 2) The'72 Dolphins. In short, I wanted the Giants to win because I despise just about everything in Boston, but I wanted the Patriots to win because I can't stand those old bastards who celebrate the final undefeated team's first loss. So the game was bitter-sweet.

That said, it was one of the best NFL games I have watched in a long time. The only real problem I had with the game was the half-time show. I mean, seriously, how long is this knee jerk reaction to a nipple ring going to last? Who will it be next year? The Monkeys? Enough with the endless string of "Old Man River" performers. Give me something contemporary at least. I'm not asking to watch 50 Cent snort lines of cocaine off a stripper's ass (though that would certainly be entertaining). I just want someone who was popular AFTER my dad graduated high school.

But I digress. So (puke) congratulations to the (puke) Giants (puke).

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 5

2008-02-03T21:56:00.001-07:00

THE TAPE:
DOW +536 (+4.39%)
S&P +65 (4.86%)
NASDAQ +87 (+3.74%)
RUSSELL +42 (6.07%)

THE STORY:
This week was a seemingly futile buying frenzy in this author's opinion. Now, I could be DEAD wrong, but according to statistical analysis on Kohler's blog, we are in for a little bit more selling. I will let his blog tell the potential story this week.

Gold (GDX, GLD) has been holding up nicely. We are still waiting on LM, while MYGN is still in selling range. Take a look at the DOW (and other general markets) for resistance potential.

From the Library...

2008-01-31T16:21:00.000-07:00

I have, due to some light prodding by a lawyer over the last few years, started the journey through Stephen King's The Dark Tower series. I finished book one about two weeks ago, and I'll say this: I am going to need some more prodding to continue the story. Now I'm just a nit-wit amateur bibliophile, but I am going to say that the first book, The Gunslinger, fell flat on its fat ass.

That said, I feel that it is incumbent upon me to treat the first book as nothing more than a shoddy prologue, and at least see where this thing goes in the second installment. At this point, there is no recommendation, nor is there a warning regarding this book. I simply believe that I have not gone far enough to dole too much praise or criticism today.

I will return with a future post regarding the next book in the series.

Also on the docket: Confessions of an Economic Hitman, by John Perkins.

Joke of the Week

2008-01-30T14:19:00.001-07:00

Perhaps this post should be re-titled "The Funny Shit of the Week" seeing as how this is not necessarily a joke. Nevertheless, enjoy!

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 4

2008-01-25T14:03:00.001-07:00

THE TAPE:
DOW +107 (+0.8%)
S&P +5 (+0.4%)
NASDAQ -14 (-0.6%)
RUSSELL +15 (+2.2%)

THE STORY:
There was huge range with week. The DOW whipped around to the tune of 852 points.

Two major reasons sparked the volatility: 1) A global panic sell off was created over MLK day as a result of banking fraud in... you guessed it... France. 2) Jackass cut a major chunk out of the fed funds rate, slashing it by 75 basis points, sending stocks higher. This hasn't been done since Dad was paying 18% on his house in the early 80's.

Some people think that we have hit a bottom in the downtrend. Morons, all of them. The fed meets again next week for their "scheduled rate cut" where we should get another 25 basis points or so. I'm quite convinced that this will disappoint and we will see more selling next week. February will probably see some basing and consolidation... but we will cross that bridge when we get there.

Congratulations for anyone who decided to take the gold (GLD, GDX) trade and made some money over the past week. $1000 is just around the corner. Know it. Own it. We are still waiting on LM, while MYGN broke down last week. After last weeks strength (however mild it was) we have some great entries for shorting the market.

Keep an eye on: BHI, GOOG, CX, SWK, MTB, LTM, LIFC, NILE,

Joke of the Week

2008-01-23T09:21:00.000-07:00

"Can you explain to me how this lipstick got on your collar?" a suspicious wife asked.
"No, I can't," the husband replied, "I distinctly remember taking my shirt off."

Masterpiece Theatre

2008-01-20T19:34:00.000-07:00

On Saturday, I went to a movie with Benjamin. I/We take quite a bit of pride in movie selection ability. This week, it was In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale. This particular selection was a "no brainer" based on the dark ages fantasy setting, as well as the stellar cast. With names like Jason Statham and John Rhys Davies, it is tough to go wrong. That said...

THAT MOVIE WAS HORRIBLE!

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 3

2008-01-18T14:34:00.001-07:00

THE TAPE:
DOW -515 (-4.09%)
S&P -77 (-5.5%)
NASDAQ -99 (-4.1%)
RUSSELL -31 (-4.5%)

THE STORY:
Last week I talked about the credit and housing problems that are taking quite a toll on the market. I also said that it would take time to finish out the cycle (months... or years) and that no amount of rate slashing by Jackass or any other program would help. This, I would love to brag, was proven today as President Bush delivered a message to the press about a $145 billion "stimulus plan". As the speech began, the DOW was UP about 180 points. By the time the speech was over, the DOW was in negative territory and eventually closed down. It is pretty clear that the institutional money managers understand the limitations of governmental ability to force economic change.

We also received another "shoe drop" this week as Citigroup (C) wrote down a $20 billion loss, which turns out to be the largest loss in history for a bank. Also, large bond issuers are being investigated. Here are the nuts folks: the earnings reports and economic releases that have been coming out so far this year have been met with tags like "...hasn't been this bad since 2001" or "...our largest percentage drop since 2002".

Given the fundamental parallels to the 2001-02 and 1987 bear markets, the following are bad ideas:
1) Trying to pick a bottom.
2) Listening to Jim Cramer.
3) Watching CNBC.
4) Reading analyst reports.

Ignore all that shit. They are going to fill your head with "its at a great value now" and "we may have found a bottom". Yeah, just like $90, then $75, then $50, then $5 was a value for Enron. They tell you to buy the shit because they need someone to sell it to.

Next week, keep an eye on Legg Mason (LM), Myriad Genetics (MYGN). Both of them have created pretty strong levels of support ($68 and $44 respectively). They are also forming some text book descending triangles. Be patient. Wait for the break. Then short the shit out of 'em. Remember those gold (GDX, GLD) ideas as well.

Lastly, if you need A REASON TO NOT LISTEN TO ANALYSTS, I present: Harley Davidson (HOG).

Joke of the Week

2008-01-16T15:06:00.000-07:00

A pirate walks into a bar with a steering wheel on his crotch.
The bartender says, "Do you know you have a steering wheel on your crotch?"
The pirate says, "Argh, it's drivin' me nuts!"

Single Malt Archives

2008-01-11T23:33:00.000-07:00

The Juice: Bowmore 12 year old

Bowmore can be found on the Loch Indaal side of the Isle of Islay (eye-la). Established in 1779, Bowmore is one of the oldest distilleries in Scotland, and the oldest in Islay. They have adhered to the old traditions of producing their own floor malted barley, turning it laboriously with a large wooden shovel.

The Notes:

Color: light amber
Nose: honey, putty, subtle lemon
Palate: peat, malt, slightly oily
Finish: long smoke, hints of citrus

The Verdict: 6.5/10

This one is deceptively light in the nose for an Islay, but the palate is pleasant and a bit of a monster. It is one of the lesser Islay Malts in my opinion, which probably makes it a decent one for beginners. Bowmore will most likely play a very small roll in the rotation henceforth. I wouldn't mind having a bottle on hand, but I probably will not be going out of my way to get it.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 2

2008-01-11T14:46:00.001-07:00

THE TAPE:
DOW -200 (-1.5%)
S&P -11 (-.75%)
NASDAQ -65 (-2.5)
RUSSELL -17 (-2.4)

THE STORY:
If I had been blogging for the last year, you would have seen some posts back in late Q1 that talked about the sub-prime story. There were smaller companies that were going bankrupt left and right (LEND, NEW). It then morphed into a monster story in the middle of Q3 when the sub-prime issue trickled UP to the big boys. Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Capital One (COF), JP Morgan (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) have had capital equity losses ranging from 20-50% since July . Countrywide (CFC) has dropped about 80% in the same time frame. Between Q3 and today, we have been waiting for the "other shoe to drop." If you take a look, you can see an entire closet full of "other shoes" (the most recent being today's $15 BILLION write down by MER). The entire financial sector (XLF) has been hammered.

It seems like every week, there is another dip shit analyst that is talking about "further concern over the sup-prime and credit issues." Further concerns? These guys are complete assholes. The concerns started back in the beginning of 2007, and they will continue until the cycle runs its course. It isn't news worthy when another analyst wakes up and smells the bear market. The people who were stupid enough to buy a home way over their pay-grade, and the companies stupid enough to let them, will all have to try to dig themselves out of the grave. This will continue to have huge implications in the market.

Think about it for a moment. How would you dig yourself out of this situation? You bought a house and the payment fit your budget... barely. Then two years later, your rates are adjusted and your payment goes up by $800. You can't refinance because you already did that last year to pay for Christmas. You can't sell it because it has been devalued by $10k since the housing market dip. Where does the other $800 come from. It comes from your gym membership, your clothing fund, your video games, movies and music. It comes from the $50 per night restaurant you love so much. Forget about the renovation on the bathroom upstairs. What matters now is that you can STAY in the house... not fix it up.

Now take all of the money you aren't spending on those items and multiply it by 25 million people. We are talking about billions (if not trillions) of dollars that will not be going to Crocks Shoes (CROX), Lowes (LOW), and PF Changs (PFCB). Mix that in with Bernake making further inflationary decisions, and $100 oil (OIH), you have a dying market with no currency value. IT IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME (or Mexico is actually going to have to pay back the money we let them "borrow" over the last 65 years... whichever happens first).

The flight to quality continues to grow with gold (GLD, GDX) prices breaking $900 per ounce. This is an indicator that big money players are heading for cover. I am betting on $1000/oz by the beginning of Q2. Corporate write downs continue and consumer confidence numbers keep falling. If you are bullish on the market, stop it.

Joke of the Week

2008-01-09T00:57:00.000-07:00

A traveling salesman knocks on a door.
A five-year-old answers smoking a cigar and drinking a scotch.
The salesman asks, "Excuse me, son, are your parents home?"
The kid says, "What do you fucking think?"

And the Award Goes to...

2008-01-03T16:53:00.000-07:00

2007 AWARDS

DRINKING BUDDY OF THE YEAR: Benjamin. We started down a dangerous road when we discovered the greatness of single malt scotch. What an experience.

LIFETIME SERVICE AWARD (longest friend): Again Benjamin. 1988 was three weeks ago.

NEWCOMER AWARD - COOLEST NEWEST FRIEND? Tough one, but the award goes to Batzel. He has opened a lot of doors for me this year. Until I met him, I didn't know that business meetings took place at the strip club. Also considered: Brandon Armstrong

HIGH POINT OF THE YEAR? On April 7th I got married to my Brandi. Also considered: Vegas (Brandi took me and Adam joined us).

LOW POINT OF THE YEAR? Even though 2007 could go down as the best year of my life to date, the award goes to the small stretch of time that I was virtually alone in Utah.

BEST HOLIDAY? Christmas kicked so much ass this year. Great gifts and fellowship all around. Also considered: Thanksgiving

YOUR SONG FOR 2007: Black Magic Woman. Thank you Guitar Hero 3. Also considered: Benny Lava.

MOVIE FOR 2007? This was a close one. Transformers. Also considered: Harry Potter.

BEST RELATIONSHIP? Brandi gets this one for all of the reasons a wife should.

BEST BUY? High definition TV.

RESTAURANT OF THE YEAR? Sensi at the Bellagio in Vegas. Best dining experience I have ever had. Again, with Brandi and Adam. Also considered: Uno's in Denver.

KISS OF THE YEAR? That time when Bandit actually got his tongue IN Ben's mouth.

BEST DECISION MADE THIS YEAR? Marriage.

WHAT ARE YOUR PLANS FOR NEXT YEAR? Some European travel. Client and portfolio growth. A little bit of weight loss.

MOST STUPID IDEA WHEN DRUNK? Benjamin drove a little bit after his Fat Chick comment.

TV SHOW OF THE YEAR? Southpark takes it by a mile.

VIDEO GAME OF THE YEAR? Assassin's Creed was unbelievable. Also considered: Tomb Raider Anniversary and Guitar Hero 3

MOST LOYAL FRIEND? See LIFETIME SERVICE AWARD.

BIGGEST CHANGE OF THE YEAR? Marriage.

BIGGEST DOUCHEBAG AWARD? Co-award winners Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman can been seen making bad decisions all year in 2008 as well. Also considered: Robert Jordan for dying.

WORST NEW WORD AWARD? "Fetch" as opposed to "fuck". Thank you to the Mormon's for reminding us that it is not the words we speak but the spirit in which we speak them.

Welcome to the Pub

2008-01-03T15:51:00.000-07:00

I have decided to come back to the world of the blog. The wife has been trying to get me to do this for months, and in rare fashion I have submitted. The rules of the new blog are simple. Whatever I want is what you get. I will not adopt Rome's "more of me and less of you is good for this show" mentality. However, every day is "zero tolerance Friday" here at The Pub. If I see something I don't like, any and all dissenters will be taken to the public square and shot. Sweep the leg. No mercy.

The flip side of that coin is one of endless glory... not the Mormon kind. This glory will be a Wall of Fame of sorts. Great input, ideas, and commentary will be lauded and praised for centuries to come. I'll have to find a way to create said Wall though.

Topics will range from trading to whatever the hell else I want to talk about. In order to stay consistent, I will be implementing "... of the week" posts. Joke of the week, quote of the week, etc. Feel free to submit ideas for these as we go.

So grab a pint of Guiness or a dram of your favorite Islay 16 year, and join me in The Pub, where the best conversations and debates occur.